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The Freight Brief Oct 19, 2026

What’s going on in freight — Monday 19 October 2026

The Middle East still sets the tone: Iran says more tankers have hit mines near Hormuz, while Gemini puts a Q1 2027 date on a near-full Suez return that would add Asia-Europe capacity. Elsewhere, carriers are testing a $1,000 Asia-Europe rate rise, diesel above $6 is squeezing US truckers, and DHL’s raised guidance opens forwarder earnings week.

War, chokepoints and disruption

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say three tankers hit mines near Hormuz in two days, each on a route Iran had not authorised; no one has independently confirmed it. IMF PortWatch counted 2 transits on 11 October against about 85 a day before the crisis, and Iran’s reopening offer is still stalled over US conditions (Al Arabiya/AFP, straits.live, Arab News/Reuters). [01]
  • Typhoon Champi reached 140 knots on Monday, and JTWC’s track passes about 94 nautical miles from Taipei early Saturday. Taiwan’s weather agency expects an earlier turn north but still warns of heavy rain, so Taiwan port and airport disruption around 23–25 October is a real risk (HNGN, Focus Taiwan). [04]
  • The crew abandoned the Espirito Santos Express after a fire in the Atlantic on its Singapore–Santos voyage, with Hapag-Lloyd, ONE and MSC cargo aboard. Shippers on board should prepare for a possible general average claim, where all cargo owners share the cost of saving the ship (Seatrade Maritime). [12]

Rates and markets

  • Carriers are seeking Asia-Europe FAK (freight all kinds) rates of $4,500–4,800 per 40ft from 19 October, against a Drewry Shanghai-Rotterdam spot of $3,522 on 15 October. Drewry counts only two Asia-Europe blank sailings next week, down from six (Drewry WCI, Drewry cancelled sailings). [03]
  • Global air cargo spot rates held at $3.55/kg in week 41 even as tonnage fell for a third straight week. Jet fuel is up 111% year on year and Gulf capacity is still 20% below late February, per WorldACD (STAT Times). [10]
  • Werner cut its Q3 adjusted EPS guidance to 15–16 cents against a 36-cent consensus, blaming diesel, driver costs and insurance reserves. US diesel averaged $6.179 a gallon in the week of 12 October, up $2.514 on a year ago (FreightWaves, EIA, FreightWaves). [06]

Tariffs, customs and policy

  • Trump signed an order on 16 October adding 500% to duties on Russian goods and 100% on goods from the top five buyers of Russian oil, then waived them all in the same order, with no end date. The order names no countries; reporting points to China and India (White House, RFE/RL). [09]
  • US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says investors can buy and refurbish idle sanctioned “dark fleet” tankers to carry legal oil. Kpler says only about 24 of roughly 160 US-sanctioned supertankers could realistically return, so fuel surcharge relief is unlikely (The National, Baird Maritime/Reuters). [05]
  • CBP is largely paying IEEPA tariff refunds under CAPE Phase 1 within about 60 days of a request, Foley & Lardner reports. The next Phase 3 group could open on 20 October, but that date is the law firm’s inference, not a CBP announcement (National Law Review/Foley & Lardner). [11]
  • The India–New Zealand FTA takes effect on 20 October. New Zealand drops duty on all its tariff lines for Indian goods, including clothing and footwear that pay up to 10% today; India opens about 70% of its lines, keeps dairy out, and requires CAROTAR origin proof and DGFT quota licences (Daily Prabhat/ANI, A2Z Taxcorp). [15]

Forwarders, carriers and deals

  • Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen expects “more or less all” Gemini services back through Suez during Q1 2027, and a new China-West Med loop leaves Shanghai on 22 November. Xeneta says Red Sea capacity has doubled since late August but is still only 48% of the August 2023 level (The Loadstar, Xeneta). [02]
  • DHL Group raised its 2026 EBIT guidance to above EUR 7.0bn, and DHL Global Forwarding earned about EUR 260m in Q3, against EUR 195m a year earlier. DSV reports on 21 October and Kuehne+Nagel on 22 October (DHL Group, FreightWaves). [08]
  • A Dallas County judge upheld the $604m jury verdict against C.H. Robinson over a 2021 crash that killed three people, and interest takes the total past $700m. The jury found the driver was under the broker’s control, which matters to anyone who books trucks (FreightWaves). [07]

Software, AI and automation

  • Daimler Truck’s CFO says the company expects to take the driver out on its first Torc route by end-2026 and scale toward 2028. The Torc “virtual driver” would be billed per mile as software (FreightWaves). [13]
  • Evos raised $9 million for AI “operators” that audit freight invoices. It says one broker’s deployment flagged more than $600,000 in billing gaps in five weeks, though that figure is Evos’s own and counts money flagged, not recovered (FreightWaves, The Loadstar). [14]

Coming up

  • 20 October: India–New Zealand FTA takes effect. [15]
  • 20 October: possible next CAPE Phase 3 refund group (law-firm inference, not confirmed by CBP). [11]
  • 21 October: DSV Q3 results. [08]
  • 22 October: Kuehne+Nagel Q3 results. [08]
  • 23–25 October: Typhoon Champi closest to Taiwan and Fujian. [04]
  • 27 October: Werner full Q3 results, after the market close. [06]
  • 29 October: next Drewry WCI assessment; C.H. Robinson Q3 results expected around this date. [03] [07]
  • 5 November: DHL Group full Q3 report. [08]
  • 22 November: first sailing of Gemini’s new China-West Med loop from Shanghai. [02]