What’s going on in freight — Sunday 25 October 2026

The war risk is still spreading: about 492 ships are queued outside Hormuz, Riyadh’s airport reopened under a new Houthi threat, and Russia says it hit two more ships bound for Ukrainian ports. On the commercial side, carriers are repricing November lane by lane, Washington is talking up a Canada deal days before a new 50% tariff list starts, and US freight earnings this week will show who has absorbed the diesel bill.

War, chokepoints and disruption

• About 492 vessels were waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz on 25 October, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), which counted 101 US-facilitated transits from 22 to 24 October against a normal rate of about 138 a day. Reports say Iran could reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade, but Iranian media deny any offer was made. (Gulf News, Daily Pakistan) [01]
• Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport said flights would resume on 25 October after a two-week closure, the same day the Saudi-led coalition said it shot down a missile aimed at Riyadh and 10 fired at southern Saudi Arabia. The Houthis told airlines the airport is a military target, and Lufthansa and Air France have cancelled flights through mid-November. (Daily Sabah/AFP, Irish Examiner/AP) [03]
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said on 25 October its drones hit two cargo ships, one bound for Chornomorsk and one for Odesa; it named neither ship and Reuters could not verify the claim. War-risk cover for Black Sea port calls already costs about 1% of a ship’s insured value. (gCaptain/Reuters, Beinsure) [05]

Rates and markets

• Maersk has cut its peak season surcharge from north-west India to US East and Gulf ports to $5,150 a box, from $7,150 on 2 October, with Houston at $5,700 and the West Coast at $3,400. Elsewhere charges are rising: MSC adds $200 a box from Greece, Türkiye and the Black Sea to north Europe from 1 November, and Drewry counts 56 blank sailings out of 714 on East–West trades to 30 November. (Container News, Container News, Drewry) [02]

Tariffs, customs and policy

• White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on 25 October that the US and Canada are “very close” to a trade deal. The new 50% Section 338 list still takes effect on 30 October, freeing 22 products and adding 100. (BNN Bloomberg, Global News) [04]

Forwarders, carriers and deals

• UPS reports Q3 results on Tuesday 27 October, with analysts expecting EPS of $1.63 against $1.74 a year ago; Werner reports the same day, and XPO on Thursday 29 October. Werner has already guided to 15–16 cents a share, and AAA puts US diesel at $6.35 a gallon, up 74% on a year ago. (Stocktwits, XPO, AAA) [06]

Coming up

• Tuesday 27 October: UPS and Werner Q3 results. [06]
• Thursday 29 October: XPO Q3 results; C.H. Robinson expected the same day. [06]
• Friday 30 October: new Section 338 list on Canadian goods takes effect. [04]
• Sunday 1 November: MSC’s $200 emergency surcharge from Greece, Türkiye and the Black Sea to north Europe; Maersk’s lower Middle East–West Africa emergency surcharge. [02]
• Monday 2 November: Hapag-Lloyd’s new Italy inland fuel surcharge. [02]
• Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections; Expeditors Q3 results. [04] [06]
• Thursday 5 November: Maersk Q3 report. [06]
• Mid-November: Lufthansa and Air France Riyadh cancellations run to about this point. [03]