Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
IEEPA refunds pay in about 60 days. The next Phase 3 date is a guess. CBP is largely paying CAPE Phase 1 refunds within 60 days of a request, Foley & Lardner said on 19 October. Our view: quote clients 60 days, not a Phase 3 date. Phase 3, for older liquidated entries, opened on 6 October only to litigants who gave CBP an importer number by 30 July. Foley reads CBP’s “biweekly cadence” as a possible next group on 20 October. That is a law firm’s inference, not a CBP announcement. Our call: CBP publishes instructions for the late filers before the end of November. Not legal advice.
Trade & Customs Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read
India–NZ trade deal goes live: Indian clothing to New Zealand loses its duty of up to 10%. From Tuesday 20 October, New Zealand will charge zero duty on 100% of its tariff lines for Indian goods. Clothing, leather and footwear currently pay up to 10%. In our view the early volume will come in Indian apparel and footwear, not in New Zealand food going to India. India has opened about 70% of its tariff lines and keeps dairy out. It also needs origin proof under its CAROTAR rules and DGFT quota licences. Our call: by end of March 2027, NZ import data will show Indian apparel and footwear up by double digits year on year.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
Trump shelves 100% secondary tariffs and Russia tanker sanctions before day one. On Friday 16 October, President Trump waived the Russia sections of the Graham Act. They were due to start today, 18 October. They included tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian energy (ABC News). In our view, Washington has put fuel prices ahead of pressure on Moscow. Diesel averaged $6.31 a gallon on Thursday (Business Today). For forwarders, Chinese and Indian cargo avoids a tariff shock. But the threat can come back at any time. Our call: the waiver holds through year-end. Fuel surcharges will not ease before then.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read
The Mexico tariff deal has stalled. Plan on 25% and 50% through year-end. On 15 October the Wall Street Journal reported that a US–Mexico deal to cut the 25% tariff on Mexican cars and the 50% tariff on steel and aluminium had stalled. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reportedly objects to big cuts. Both governments deny the talks have stalled. Our view: don’t price northbound freight on the hope of relief. The USMCA review is already on a year-by-year footing. Since 14 October, how you prove US content decides what your clients pay. Our prediction: no signed tariff-cut deal before 31 December 2026.
Trade & Customs Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read
Tariff refund class action opens a door for small importers. Don’t wait at it. About $30 billion in struck-down IEEPA tariffs could stay with the US government unless a new class action works, the trade court estimates (Supply Chain Dive). The court certified the class on 8 October. Scheduling filings are due Thursday, 22 October. Our view: this is a backstop, not a payout. No refund has been ordered yet. The government may appeal (Steptoe). Brazil and India duties are excluded (Davis Wright Tremaine). Brokers should flag every client who never used CAPE, the customs refund portal. We expect no class-wide refund money before the end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Russia tariff threat paused, but diesel relief stays thin. On Friday President Trump waived the Graham Act’s Russia measures, including tariffs of up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas, two days before they were due to start (ABC News). Our view: this pauses a big tariff risk on India and China lanes. It does not remove it. The waiver lasts only until the White House decides otherwise. A plan to free sanctioned tankers will barely touch diesel either. Kpler expects “virtually no impact on the current tanker crisis” (Reuters). Our call: US diesel stays above $6 a gallon through the 3 November midterms.
Trade & Customs Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read
Mexico wants a 15% ceiling on US car tariffs. Nothing is signed. On 16 October, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told lawmakers Mexico wants no carmaker paying more than 15% in US tariffs, the rate South Korea gets (Expansión). Today it is 25% on cars and 50% on steel (Rio Times). Our view: plan around today’s rates. Ebrard expects relief within weeks or months, but there is no deal, no US order and no steel rate. The next round of trade-pact talks has no date. Our call: no signed US cut to Mexico’s car or steel tariffs before 31 December 2026.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump signs a 500% Russia tariff and a 100% buyer tariff, then waives both. On 16 October the White House published an order raising duty on Russian goods by 500% and on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas by 100%. Section 4 of the same order waives those duties. Our view: nothing changes at the border today, but the switch now exists. The waiver stays until the President or Secretary of State decides otherwise. The order names no CBP process and no effective date. Forwarders with India or China lanes should know that. Our call: no Graham Act duty is collected at a US port before 31 December 2026.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
The US wants $200,000 a voyage from Spanish ships. Watch the olive oil. On 14 October the US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) proposed a $200,000 fee every time a Spanish-flagged ship enters a US port. The reason: Spain refused port access to US-flagged Maersk ships in November 2024. Our view: the ship fee is a signal, because few Spanish-flagged vessels call at US ports. The real lever is a proposed limit on about $3.1 billion a year of Spanish goods, including $836.9 million of olive oil. Comments close on 14 December. We expect Spain to request a hearing before that date and no final rule before end of March 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
CBP gives postal filers 90 more days. The bigger change is the rule behind it. US Customs (CBP) has pushed mandatory Entry Type 13, its new electronic customs entry for international mail, from 22 October 2026 to 20 January 2027, BDO reports. We think the delay matters less than the proposal published on 8 October. It would make courier informal entries (Entry Type 11, goods worth $2,500 or less) due on or before arrival, not within 15 days. In CBP’s own sample, only 0.4% were filed before arrival. Our call: comments close 7 December, and express brokers will push hard for a phase-in. We expect any final rule no earlier than mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read
Commerce has defined “U.S. content”. The 15% floor still sets the bill. From 14 October, Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum goods have a federal definition of “U.S. content”. The 25% Section 232 duty applies only to the part that isn’t U.S. content. In our view, the paperwork gets heavier but the savings don’t grow. For steel derivatives, CBP caps the U.S. content you can report at 40% of value, and 25% on the other 60% comes to 15%. That is exactly the legal floor. Brokers will need melt-and-pour and smelt-and-cast records from suppliers. Our call: CBP will issue new filing guidance that uses this definition before the end of Q4.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
The $200,000 ship fee is a warning shot. The olive oil and tile list is the real threat. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has proposed a $200,000 fee every time a Spanish-flagged ship enters a US port. It has also proposed limits on five Spanish import categories worth about $3.1bn in 2025. This follows Spain turning away US-flagged Maersk ships in November 2024. Few Spanish-flagged ships call at US ports, the FMC says, so the fee alone will not hurt much in our view. The cargo list would: olive oil at $836.9m, ceramic tiles at $523.7m, perfume, stone and confectionery. Comments close 14 December. Our call is that importers will pull Spanish orders forward through November and December.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read
$30bn of tariff refunds now has a class action behind it, and it will be slow. About $166bn was collected under the struck-down IEEPA tariffs. About $126bn had been certified for refund by 2 October, according to Penn Wharton. On 8 October the Court of International Trade certified a class of every importer that paid and has not sued. The court says about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is a safety net for small importers, not a quick payout. The parties’ timetable is due 22 October. Metro Global says an appeal could push things to spring or summer 2027. Our call: no class refunds before April 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
CBP wants low-value entries filed before arrival. Almost nobody does that today. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has proposed that informal entries (goods worth $2,500 or less) be filed on or before the day goods arrive, not within 15 days after. In CBP’s own sample of 392,473 entries, only 0.4% were filed before the day of arrival. In our view, this is the biggest workflow change for express and e-commerce brokers since de minimis was suspended in August 2025. Data capture has to move to origin. Our call: comments due 7 December will be dominated by requests for a phase-in, and nothing takes effect before mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Mexico opens a zero-duty door for car kits, China’s included. Since 14 October, Mexico has charged 0% instead of 10% on auto parts imported for kit assembly, under tariff item 9803.00.01. The cut runs for five years, according to Mexico Business News. We think this is aimed squarely at Chinese carmakers. The relief covers parts “from all international origins”, and Cluster Industrial ties it to GAC’s plan to start kit assembly in Q4 2026. Only carmakers in a bonded warehouse (a “depósito fiscal”, where duty is suspended) qualify. Our call: the first Chinese kit shipments into Mexican bonded warehouses under the 0% rate land by end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
US regulator targets Spanish olive oil and tile, not just Spanish ships. The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has proposed a $200,000 fee on every voyage a Spanish-flagged ship makes into a US port, plus possible import limits on five groups of Spanish goods. Our view: the fee is for show; the goods list is the pressure. The FMC itself says “relatively few” Spanish-flagged ships call at US ports. The goods in scope were worth about $3.1 billion in 2025, olive oil alone nearly $837 million. Affected importers should comment by mid-December. Our call: nothing takes effect before February 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Solar duties of over 100% hit India, Indonesia and Laos from 2 November. On 14 October the US International Trade Commission (ITC) cleared final anti-dumping and countervailing duties on solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos. Commerce issues the orders on 2 November. Cash deposits start after that. India’s rates are 123.04% anti-dumping and 126.09% anti-subsidy. Our view: this lane is finished, not repriced. In 2024 the US imported about $1.5 billion of these goods from the three countries, per Commerce. Forwarders should expect stricter origin checks on cells. Our call: monthly imports from the three countries fall more than 90% from 2024 levels by March 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read
Mexico cuts car-kit duty to zero while finished cars from China pay 50%. Since 14 October, Mexico charges 0% instead of 10% on car-assembly parts under tariff line 9803.00.01, for five years. Only carmakers with a bonded-warehouse permit qualify, and the decree names kit assembly (SKD/CKD) projects. Most new cars from countries without a trade deal with Mexico, China included, have paid 50% since 1 January. Our view: this opens a cheaper route in for kits, not cars. Forwarders should expect more containerised kit cargo into Mexican bonded plants. Our call: at least one Asian carmaker announces a Mexican kit-assembly line by end of March 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 8 min read
Second ship sunk off Bulgaria in a week. Western Black Sea cargo will cost more. A drone-hit cargo ship, HS Dignity, sank off Bulgaria overnight with 11 crew missing, Reuters reported on 13 October. It was heading for Braila, Romania. A second ship, Chelsea-3, was hit by three drones. A week earlier, another drone attack in Bulgaria’s economic zone left 10 sailors lost. Our view: the “safe” western corridor to Romania is no longer safe. In September, London insurers widened their high-risk zone to the whole Black Sea. Romanian and Bulgarian coastal waters were left out. We expect underwriters to start charging extra for Constanta and Danube calls by end of November.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
From Wednesday, US-melted steel cuts the tariff bill on Mexican and Canadian machines. The US Commerce Department publishes its definition of “U.S. content” on Wednesday, 14 October. It decides how much of a Canadian or Mexican metal product escapes a 25% Section 232 duty. That is 128 days after the duty started on 8 June. In our view, the rule matters less than the paperwork. Value now counts if the steel was “melted and poured in the United States” (Federal Register). The proclamation sets a 15% floor, so in our arithmetic US content above 40% saves nothing more. Our call: CBP requests for mill proof on these entries will be routine by end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for importers who never sued. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a class of importers that paid IEEPA tariffs between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026 and never filed their own suit. The judge says about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is the main route left for small importers, but it is not money yet. The court has not ordered payment, and a government appeal is still pending. Forwarders and brokers should expect client calls now. We expect no class member to see a refund before the end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for small importers. No money moves this year. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class of importers who paid IEEPA tariffs from 1 February 2025 to 19 February 2026 and never sued. The court estimates about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: this is the right door, but it is not a payment. ArentFox Schiff’s James Kim said the decision “doesn’t immediately expand refund eligibility or direct payment.” The Justice Department is still appealing refunds for non-plaintiffs. Brokers should list clients who never filed in CAPE (Customs’ refund portal). Our call: no class-wide refund order before end of Q1 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Trump says the US does not need Canada. Plan for a Mexico-first deal and Canada risk into 2027. At a 10 October rally, Trump said the US will make a new trade deal with Mexico and does not need Canada, as reported by The Rio Times. On 12 October, Mexico’s President Sheinbaum said: “There is progress, there is no final agreement yet, but we keep talking.” Our view: this is a two-track negotiation, and Canada lanes carry most of the risk. US–Mexico freight hit $94.8bn in July, up 27.5% (BTS). Canada has a 50% tariff on its cars and steel due in January. We expect no signed US–Mexico text before the 3 November midterms.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Trade court opens a refund route for importers who never sued. On Thursday 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a class of importers who paid IEEPA tariffs between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026, according to Supply Chain Dive. The court estimates about $30bn would otherwise stay with the government. Our view: good news for small importers, but no money moves yet. A lawyer at ArentFox Schiff told Supply Chain Dive the decision “doesn’t immediately expand refund eligibility or direct payment.” Brokers should list clients’ old entries now. Our call: no class-wide refunds are paid before the end of 2026.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Trump says Mexico gets a new deal and Canada is not needed. At a rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, on Saturday 10 October, President Trump said the US would make a new trade deal with Mexico and did not need Canada, The Rio Times reported. He gave no date, content or legal form. Our view: treat this as a signal, not a deal. North American trade is splitting into two lanes. Mexico freight is growing fast: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) data put July US–Mexico trade at $94.8 billion, up 27.5%. Canada faces threatened 50% tariffs on autos, parts and steel from 1 January 2027. Our call: no signed US–Mexico deal text before 12 January 2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read
Brussels says China will halve hybrid car exports to Europe. The EU and China closed two days of trade talks in Beijing on 9 October. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič says the deal is to “halve HEV, PHEV exports”, meaning hybrids and plug-in hybrids. China’s statement gave no figure. Our view: hybrids are the only hard number here. The rest is promises. Hybrid imports from China rose from 3,800 in October 2024 to 50,000 in July 2026, per Financial Times data cited by CnEVPost. Expect fewer hybrids on China–Europe car carriers. Our call: China extends its rare-earth export-control pause before it ends on 10 November.
Trade & Customs Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Trade court opens an IEEPA refund route for importers that never sued. On 8 October the US Court of International Trade certified a nationwide class of importers that paid IEEPA tariffs (emergency tariffs the Supreme Court struck down in February) between 1 February 2025 and 19 February 2026 and never filed their own lawsuit. Without a class, the court estimates about $30 billion could stay with the government, according to Supply Chain Dive. In our view this matters more to small importers than Phase 3 of CAPE, the US customs refund system, which since 6 October covers old, closed entries only for importers that sued. But no class money moves yet. The government has until 23 November to appeal. We expect it to, and we expect no class payouts before mid-2027.
Trade & Customs Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
CBP wants low-value entries filed by the day goods land. US Customs proposed on 8 October that informal entries, meaning shipments worth $2,500 or less, be filed electronically on or before arrival day instead of within 15 days. The rule covers about 70.1 million commercial and 32.7 million postal shipments a year, according to the Federal Register notice. Mail gets its own entry type. Both types need a bond. Our view: customs work for cheap parcels now has to happen at origin. CBP prices a brokered mail entry at $39.72, and 79% of mail parcels are worth $30 or less. We expect a final rule before de minimis legally ends on 1 July 2027.