Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read

Gemini puts a date on the Suez return

Gemini says nearly all its ships go back through Suez in Q1 2027. Hapag-Lloyd’s CEO, Rolf Habben Jansen, expects “more or less all” Gemini services (the Maersk/Hapag-Lloyd alliance) back through Suez during Q1 2027, The Loadstar reported on 19 October. A new China-West Med loop sails from Shanghai on 22 November. Our view: this is the clearest date any top carrier has given, and it is bad news for Asia-Europe rates. Xeneta says Red Sea capacity has doubled since late August, but is still only 48% of the August 2023 level. Forwarders should check routing-linked contract terms now. Our call: Xeneta’s Far East-North Europe average falls below $3,000 per 40ft by end of March 2027.

Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe carriers ask for $1,000 more from today

Asia-Europe carriers want up to $4,800 a box from today. Expect them to get part of it. Carriers are asking $4,500 to $4,800 per 40ft container on Asia-Europe from 19 October, Drewry reports. Shanghai-Rotterdam spot was $3,522 on 15 October. Our view: this is an opening bid, not a new price. Asia-Europe blank sailings fall from six to two next week, Drewry counts, and Drewry itself calls success uncertain. Mid-July FAKs of $7,900 to $8,500 did not hold either. Quote late-October cargo with a short validity. Our call: Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate stays below $4,000 in its 29 October assessment.

Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 8 min read

Typhoon Champi nears Taiwan and Fujian

Champi’s track runs close to Taiwan. Plan for it now. Typhoon Champi hit 140 knots on Monday, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said, per HNGN. It forecasts the storm passing about 94 nautical miles from Taipei early Saturday and reaching Fujian by 24 October. Taiwan’s weather agency expects an earlier turn north but still warns of heavy rain, Focus Taiwan reported. Our view: treat Taiwan port and airport disruption as likely. Krathon in 2024 halted bunkering at most major Taiwanese ports for four days. Our call: at least one major Taiwan container port pauses operations for 24 hours or more between 23 and 25 October.

Ocean Oct 19, 2026 · 6 min read

Espirito Santos Express: fire, abandoned ship, and the bill cargo owners should expect

Ship on fire in the Atlantic: plan for a general average bill. The crew of the Espirito Santos Express abandoned ship after an explosion and fire in the Atlantic. The 2018-built boxship was sailing from Singapore to Santos, Brazil, with Hapag-Lloyd, ONE and MSC cargo aboard, Seatrade Maritime reports. All crew are safe. We think shippers on this ship should plan for a general average bill. In the last comparable case, the Yantian Express fire, the demands on uninsured cargo came to more than 60% of its value. Forwarders should check cover with every customer now. Our call: general average is declared within three weeks, and the cargo reaches Brazil months late.

Ocean Oct 18, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe rates tick up as carrier FAK hikes take effect

Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. We don’t think the hikes will hold. Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam rate rose 6% to $3,522 per 40ft container on 15 October. That ended 13 straight weeks of decline. From 19 October, carriers want more: Hapag-Lloyd’s North Europe FAK (freight all kinds, the standard list rate) is $4,200, and MSC’s is $4,500. Our view is that the hikes won’t stick. Drewry itself says Suez transits are adding capacity and that making the FAKs stick is “uncertain amid increased capacity”. Our advice: treat any quote above $4,000 as something to negotiate. Our prediction: Shanghai-Rotterdam is back below $3,522 by end of November.

Ocean Oct 18, 2026 · 8 min read

Washington moves to take away COSCO’s fast lane at US ports

COSCO’s US inspection perk is under review, three weeks before port fees can return. Eleven COSCO ships sit on a Coast Guard table for Qualship 21, the scheme that gives well-run foreign ships fewer routine safety inspections. Three House chairmen want them removed. On 15 October the Coast Guard Commandant ordered an immediate review, gCaptain reports. We think the perk goes. Washington is building a security case against COSCO, and dropping a reward is the cheapest move it has. Section 301 port fees on Chinese-operated ships are also set to restart on 10 November. Expect more Coast Guard boardings of COSCO ships. Our call: COSCO’s ships are out of Qualship 21 by mid-December.

Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe rates turn up ahead of Monday’s FAK push

Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 14 weeks. Monday’s FAKs will not hold in full. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai-Genoa rose 7% to $3,945 and Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522, the first Asia-Europe gain after 13 weeks of falls. On Monday 19 October, carriers want $4,500 to $4,800 under their FAK tariffs. A FAK (freight all kinds) is a carrier’s standard spot rate for general cargo. In our view the bounce is real, but the FAKs will not hold. Drewry calls them uncertain, because ships returning to Suez are adding capacity. Our call: neither lane reaches $4,500 by Drewry’s 29 October index.

Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

Suez and Panama capacity comes back as the Houthis widen their war

Red Sea capacity has doubled in six weeks. The risk hasn’t gone down. Weekly container capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb reached 448,273 TEU (twenty-foot containers) on 5 October, Xeneta says. That is double late August, but only 48% of August 2023. Our view: the return is real, but the war around it is getting worse. Since Thursday the Houthis have hit Aden’s presidential palace and its airport. On Friday a missile aimed at the Saudi oil port of Yanbu was shot down. Panama is easing too, to 33 daily transits. Confirm the routing on every Asia–Europe booking. Our call: Bab el-Mandeb capacity tops 550,000 TEU a week by end of November, unless a container ship is hit.

Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 8 min read

Hurricane Trudy shuts Manzanillo, Mexico’s biggest box port

Trudy shuts Manzanillo for the third time in four weeks. Manzanillo, which handled 2.07 million TEU (twenty-foot containers) in the first half of 2026, closed to ships over 500 gross tonnage at 21:00 on 16 October as Hurricane Trudy approached, Gomsa reports. Maersk expects to restart at 07:00 on Monday 19 October. In our view the restart time matters less than the queue. This is the port’s third storm stoppage since late September, after Polo and Simon. Hutchison’s TIMSA terminal has moved Saturday’s appointments to Monday. Our call: gate and yard delays at Manzanillo will run until at least Friday 23 October, and vessel schedules will not recover before November.

Ocean Oct 17, 2026 · 7 min read

Maersk raises its US and Canada intermodal fuel surcharge and changes how it invoices

Maersk lifts its inland fuel charge to $350 a box on US and Canada imports. From 16 November, Maersk will charge $350 per dry container and $400 per reefer on imports moving by rail ramp or inland yard in the US or Canada. In June it listed $200 and $250. Exports rise to $125 and $175. Maersk cites “recent increases in diesel fuel prices.” In our view this is a charge to price into Q1 quotes now, not a blip. The same week, a system change will delay Maersk invoices in Canada from 13 to 15 November. Our call: the import level stays at $350 or higher until at least end of January 2027.

Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read

Hormuz attacks reach the container feeders as Iran says the strait is closed

A Gulf feeder sank with boxes aboard. Check whose ship your cargo is on. The 2,824-TEU feeder GFS Pride was hit off Oman in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October and sank. All 21 crew got off safely. In our view the war has now reached the small ships that carry Gulf containers. Mainline carriers stopped sending their own ships through the strait. That does not mean your cargo stays out of it. Analyst Lars Jensen says Maersk, ONE, PIL and OOCL showed active schedules on some of the ships that were hit. Our call: no mainline service goes back through Hormuz before 31 December.

Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read

Asia-Europe spot rates turn up after 13 weeks as carriers push 19 October FAK increases

Asia-Europe rates rise for the first time in 13 weeks. The 19 October hikes still look too big to stick. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40ft container on 15 October. Shanghai–Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522. That ended 13 straight weeks of decline on Asia-Europe. Our view is that this is a bounce, not a turn. Carriers want FAK (freight-all-kinds) rates of $4,500–$4,800 from 19 October. That is roughly $1,000 to $1,300 above today’s Rotterdam level. A forwarder told The Loadstar demand is “a bit flat”, and MSC and CMA CGM have set the new rates to expire on 31 October. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 on Drewry’s index through October.

Ocean Oct 16, 2026 · 8 min read

Suez container traffic passes half of pre-crisis levels as the Houthi war with Saudi Arabia escalates

Suez is back past halfway. Book for it, but keep a Cape plan. Container capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU a week in early October, BIMCO says, citing Clarksons. That is more than half the 1,457,000 TEU of the same weeks in 2023, and the first time since the Houthi attacks began. Our view: the return is now real and hard to stop. BIMCO estimates Cape routing added about 10% to ship demand, and “That increase is now reducing quickly.” Expect cheaper Asia–Europe 2027 contracts and early, bunched arrivals. Our call: ONE or HMM announces a Suez routing within six weeks, unless a ship is hit.

Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe spot rates turn up as 2027 tenders open

Asia-Europe spot rates rise for the first time since July, just as tenders start. Drewry’s World Container Index shows Shanghai–Rotterdam up 6% this week to $3,522 per 40ft container. Shanghai–Genoa rose 7% to $3,945. This follows 13 straight weekly falls, as counted by The Loadstar. Our view: this is carriers setting the opening price for 2027 contract talks, not demand coming back. MSC’s new rate for 19 October is $4,500, still about $1,000 above the index. Forwarders should not take this week as a floor in tenders. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 in every weekly Drewry print through end of November.

Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 8 min read

Suez traffic passes half its pre-crisis level as a Saudi–Houthi war heats up next door

Suez is half back. Don’t price it as fully back. Container capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU (twenty-foot containers) a week in early October. That is over 50% of 2023 levels for the first time, says BIMCO. Our view: the return is real, but it is happening beside a hot Saudi–Houthi war. Linerlytica expects a full return by Q1 2027. Freightos calls the Houthi escalation “uncertainty rather than a confirmed capacity shock”. Asia–Med spot rose 7% to $3,800 per FEU (forty-foot container), per FreightWaves. Keep Cape fallback clauses in 2027 contracts. Our call: unless a container ship is hit, Asia–North Europe spot dips below $3,000/FEU by end of December.

Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read

Hurricane Trudy heads for Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas, a week after Simon

Manzanillo faces its second hurricane shutdown in a week. At 6pm Thursday, Hurricane Trudy had 90 mph winds and sat 385 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said. NHC expects it to become a major hurricane by Friday night. It gives Manzanillo an 86% chance of tropical-storm-force winds within five days, and a 36% chance of hurricane-force winds. Our view: plan for Manzanillo to stop again this weekend. Hurricane Simon closed its terminals on 10 October. Gate, rail and vessel delays from both storms will stack up. We expect Manzanillo cargo to run late until at least end-October.

Ocean Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read

Gemini’s Asia-Gulf loop returns, into the Gulf’s busiest bypass port

Gemini’s Asia-Gulf restart sends more boxes into a jammed Khor Fakkan. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restart their direct Asia-Middle East loop on 17 October. The 8,400 TEU Maersk Athabasca leaves Qingdao that day and is due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November, not Jebel Ali (The Loadstar). Our view: this adds mainline volume to a port that already cannot clear what it has. Kuehne+Nagel expects Khor Fakkan “to remain under significant pressure in the coming weeks”. Maersk itself cites “vessel congestion and limited berth availability” there. Forwarders should budget for longer dwell and scarce trucks. Our call: a Gemini carrier adds a Khor Fakkan surcharge or diverts cargo by end-December.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

A container ship sinks at Hormuz

A container ship sinks at Hormuz, and the bypass ports are now in range. The 2,824 TEU feeder GFS Pride was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 13 October and sank. All 21 crew got off. Sister ship GFS Giselle (4,350 TEU) was hit next day and reached anchorage under its own power. Our view: the Gulf of Oman ports shippers use to avoid the strait are no longer safe ground. Both ships ran loops out of Khor Fakkan and Fujairah. UKMTO logged 15 attacks between 6 and 14 October, Al Jazeera reports. We expect higher surcharges on UAE east-coast and Omani routings within four weeks.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read

Gemini restarts its Asia–Gulf loop into a congested Khor Fakkan

Gemini’s Gulf loop returns to a port that is already full. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restart their Asia–Middle East loop on 17 October, after more than six months off. It skips Jebel Ali and calls at Khor Fakkan, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz. Our view: this adds ships, not room. Gulftainer’s weekly volume there has jumped from about 8,000 to 65,000 teu (Drewry), and Kuehne+Nagel expects Khor Fakkan and Fujairah “to remain under significant pressure in the coming weeks”. Maersk is already moving boxes inland to Sajja. Plan for trucking delays. Our call: by the end of November, some FM1/AGX cargo will be moved on to Jebel Ali.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read

Suez return turns the ocean outlook negative

Suez is back, and Asia–Europe rates are losing their floor. Large container ships will soon make more than 50 Suez Canal transits a week, analyst Linerlytica said on 13 October. It now calls the market outlook negative. We agree, and we think the carriers’ late-October rate increases on Asia–Europe will not hold. Drewry says Asia–Europe rates have fallen for 13 weeks running, with Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,337 per 40ft container. Xeneta’s Peter Sand: “we are not at the floor yet.” For forwarders, shorter Suez routings free up ships and put the leverage with shippers. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam on Drewry’s index will be below $3,000 by the end of November.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 7 min read

Extortion group names 38 shipping and port firms, sets 19 October deadline

38 shipping and port firms named by one extortion gang. Check your EDI links now. An extortion group called n0n has named 38 shipping and port organisations in 18 countries on its leak site. The list includes ONE, Santos Brasil, BNCT in Busan and TTI Algeciras. Demands run from $2.4m to $14m. The deadline is 19 October. No company has confirmed a breach. Our view is that the likely target is the shared data pipes between carriers, terminals and forwarders. SOCRadar says the pattern points to a possible common entry point. Forwarders should ask their carriers and terminals about it this week. Our call: at least one named firm confirms an incident by 31 October.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Hapag-Lloyd’s better ZIM offer runs into Israel’s clock

Hapag-Lloyd adds ships to save ZIM deal, but time is the problem. Hapag-Lloyd has sweetened its $4.2 billion ZIM takeover for Israel: 16 ships for a new Israeli carrier instead of 11, plus a new Asia route. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen says the plan gives Israel “materially more maritime independence”. Our view: the terms are better, but the clock is worse. Israel’s state shareholder body stopped its review, so any new plan starts from zero. The Loadstar says the deal faces a February 2027 deadline to close. Forwarders should treat ZIM as a standalone carrier for 2027 contracts. We expect no Israeli approval before 31 December 2026.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Trudy threatens Manzanillo and Lázaro Cárdenas days after Simon shut them

Trudy is aiming at the ports Simon just closed. Tropical Storm Trudy had 65 mph winds at 3 p.m. Mexico City time on 14 October (NHC Advisory 6). The forecast makes it a major hurricane by Friday. NHC gives Manzanillo a 67% chance of tropical-storm-force winds by Monday and Lázaro Cárdenas 60%. Our view: the danger for cargo is less a direct hit than a fresh closure days after Simon’s. The Navy closed both ports to all shipping during Hurricane Simon. Our call: both are closed between Friday and Sunday, and Pacific Mexico schedules slip three to five days into the week of 26 October.

Ocean Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read

Panama Canal adds a 33rd daily slot

Panama’s extra slot is a pause, not a recovery. From 15 October, the Panama Canal offers 33 daily transit slots, up from 32. The extra one is in the big Neopanamax locks, where the draft limit (how deep a loaded ship may sit) rose to 49 feet, per a Panama Canal Authority advisory. We think this is a short break before a harder 2027. The canal ran 38 transits a day in May. The authority itself says “the water deficit continues”. Forwarders on Asia–US East Coast lanes should price Panama risk into 2027 contracts now. Our call: slots fall back to 32 or fewer by end of February 2027.

Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Gemini restarts its Asia–Gulf loop, but stops short of Jebel Ali

Gemini’s Gulf loop is back, and it ends at Khor Fakkan. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are restarting their Asia–Middle East loop (FM1/AGX), suspended since 27 March. The first ship, the 8,400 teu Maersk Athabasca, leaves Qingdao on 17 October and is due at Khor Fakkan on 16 November. Jebel Ali is dropped. In our view, this does not reopen the Gulf. It turns the Hormuz bypass into a permanent fixture. Xeneta says spot rates to Khor Fakkan rose 479% to $10,626 per 40ft by early September. One loop won’t fix that. Our call: no mainline Asia service calls Jebel Ali directly before the end of Q4.

Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read

Container rates after Golden Week: the transpacific holds high while Asia-Europe slides

Transpacific rates hold near their peak while Asia-Europe keeps sliding. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% to US$4,351 per 40-foot container (FEU) on 8 October. Our view: this is a slow drift, not a crash. The two main trades are splitting apart. Shanghai–Los Angeles slipped 3% to US$7,624, while Shanghai–Rotterdam is at US$3,337, less than half of that. Xeneta’s Peter Sand called the first West Coast dip “a marginal move, but the first dip since mid-September”. Forwarders should keep transpacific quotes short and push Europe tenders now. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam on the Drewry index goes below US$3,000 by mid-November.

Ocean Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read

November surcharges pile up: Maersk US fuel, CMA CGM Africa and Oceania, Swire West Coast

Maersk lifts US trucking fuel charge 54% as diesel falls. Maersk will raise its US inland fuel surcharge from US$140 to US$215 per container from 1 November, Container News reports. Our view: forwarders are now paying for spring and summer diesel, not today’s. EIA data show US diesel fell for two straight weeks to US$6.199 a gallon on 5 October. Maersk’s charge tracks a 13-week average, which lags. CMA CGM adds US$750 per TEU (20-foot box) on Far East–Durban from 22 October. Our call: Maersk’s US$215 stays in place until at least the end of 2026, even if pump prices keep easing.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read

Carriers head back to Suez as Red Sea risk and surcharges stay

Suez is back on Asia–Europe schedules, but one insurance bill wipes out the saving. Asia–Europe carriers keep shifting services back through Suez, even after CU Lines’ 2,400 teu CUL Klang was reported under small-arms fire in the southern Red Sea last week (The Loadstar). We think this return is thin and reversible. Drewry puts the Suez saving at about $1m per round voyage, or $43 per slot. A 0.3% war-risk premium on a $225m ship cancels it. MSC still charges $91/teu in piracy and Suez surcharges through October. Forwarders should quote transit times and cargo cover per service. Our call: those surcharges are still on invoices in November.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read

Ocean spot rates slip over Golden Week as carriers aim for 19 October increases

Spot rates fell over Golden Week. The 19 October increases look unlikely to hold. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% to $4,351 per 40ft container in the week to 8 October. Asia–Europe has now fallen for 13 weeks in a row. In our view, the carrier increases due on 19 October will not hold. MSC filed $4,500 to North Europe. Xeneta’s Far East–North Europe spot average is $3,645, and Chinese forwarders are offering $2,650. Xeneta’s Peter Sand says “we are not at the floor yet.” Shippers should not lock in contracts yet. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays under $3,600 on Drewry’s index through November.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read

Hapag-Lloyd’s Philippines booking stop

Manila’s box jam is about empties, not ships, and more carriers will act. Hapag-Lloyd has taken no new bookings to Manila, Batangas or Subic Bay since 29 September, and the stop runs to the end of December, Splash247 reports. It blames “severe constraints on container returns.” Our view: this is a landside equipment crisis. Hapag-Lloyd puts Manila ship waits at 2–4 days, while some truckers have waited up to 40 days to hand back an empty box. AB Capital analysts warn “the bigger risk is other carriers following Hapag-Lloyd’s lead.” Our call: at least one more major line restricts Philippine bookings or adds a surcharge by end-November.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read

Port of Los Angeles posts its busiest month ever

LA’s record September is the peak arriving late, not a new floor. The Port of Los Angeles handled 1,042,652 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in September, its busiest month in 118 years, the port said on 9 October. Loaded imports rose 19% year on year. Our view: this is a delayed peak season, not a new baseline. Imports were flat in August. The NRF’s own trackers expect US imports to fall 1% in November, and its supply chain chief says “Most holiday merchandise has arrived.” For forwarders, October space is still tight, but it should ease within weeks. Our call: LA’s November total, due mid-December, comes in below 900,000 TEU.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 7 min read

Hurricane Isaias: Mobile is open, the Florida Panhandle ports are not

Isaias cost Mobile two days. The Panhandle ports are still shut. The Coast Guard reopened the Port of Mobile at 16:00 on Saturday 10 October, less than a day after Hurricane Isaias came ashore near Destin as a Category 2 storm (Baird Maritime). Gulfport and Pascagoula are back to normal too. In our view the box market barely notices this one. The real delay is in the Florida Panhandle. Pensacola, Destin, Panama City and Port St. Joe still have commercial ship movements suspended. The Gulf Intracoastal Waterway between miles 167 and 376 is still in recovery. Our call: all four Panhandle ports take ships again by Saturday 17 October.

Ocean Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read

DP World’s Chattogram deal meets a hunger strike as it builds in Africa

Chattogram hunger strike puts 44% of the port’s boxes at risk. More than 100 port workers and union activists at Chattogram, Bangladesh, began a hunger strike on Monday 12 October. They want DP World’s new 15-year deal to run the New Mooring Container Terminal cancelled. That terminal handles about 44% of the port’s containers (Splash247). Our view: take this seriously. In February, strikes against the same plan halted vessel movement at the port (The Daily Star). Forwarders moving Bangladesh apparel should build slack into November bookings. Our call: at least one work stoppage at Chattogram linked to this deal before the end of November.

Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read

Asia-Europe rates are flat after Golden Week, and carriers want 26% more from 19 October

Hapag-Lloyd wants $4,200 from 19 October. The market is at $3,337. Shanghai to Rotterdam spot fell 2% to $3,337 per 40ft container on 8 October, Drewry’s index shows. Asia-Europe rates have now fallen for 13 weeks in a row. On 19 October, Hapag-Lloyd’s new FAK (freight all kinds, its standard tariff rate) for North Europe is $4,200, about 26% higher. We don’t think it holds. Blank sailings are low. Drewry calls the faster-than-expected return to Suez “the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates”. Forwarders should quote Q4 Asia-Europe off the spot market, not off the tariff. Our call: Shanghai–Rotterdam stays below $4,000 all October.

Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read

HMM Platinum fire: salvage and general average loom for 2,300 boxes

HMM Platinum fire: every shipper on board may have to pay, burnt box or not. The 5,593 teu HMM Platinum caught fire off southern Madagascar with around 2,300 containers on board, bound from India to Santos, Brazil. Salvors SMIT are on the job. Claims firm W.E. Cox says “GA will likely be declared”. Our view: uninsured shippers carry the real risk here. In general average (GA), cargo owners share the cost of saving the voyage, even if their boxes are untouched. After the 2018 Maersk Honam fire, release cost 54% of cargo value. Our call: GA is formally declared by 31 October, and Santos-bound cargo is not delivered before December.

Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read

Panama Canal adds one daily slot from 15 October

Panama’s extra slot on Thursday is a breather before the next dry season. From Thursday 15 October the Panama Canal offers 33 daily transit slots, up from 32. Its bigger Neopanamax locks get a tenth slot. On 28 September the canal also raised the deepest allowed Neopanamax draft (how far a ship sits below the waterline) to 49 feet. We think this is a short breather, not a recovery. The canal says a water deficit persists. Ships without a booking “may therefore face indefinite delays”. Strait of Magellan traffic rose more than 70% year on year in August and September. Our call: new cuts to slots or draft before end-February 2027.

Ocean Oct 11, 2026 · 8 min read

Hurricane Isaias: Mobile is back, the Florida Panhandle is not

Isaias cost Mobile about two days. The Panhandle is the slower story. Hurricane Isaias hit near Destin, Florida, on Friday night as a Category 2 storm. By Saturday the Coast Guard said Gulfport, Mobile and Pascagoula were “back up and running in normal mode.” Destin, Panama City and Pensacola stayed restricted. Our view: for containers this was a short pause, not a crisis. Mobile handles about 600,000 TEU (20-foot containers) a year and stopped vessel work at noon Thursday. After Hurricane Michael in 2018, Panama City was still on daylight-only operations days later. Our call: Mobile is clear of its backlog by 18 October. Panhandle restrictions last longer.