Air Oct 19, 2026 · 7 min read
Air volumes fell three weeks running. Spot rates did not move. Global air cargo spot rates held at $3.55/kg in week 41 (5–11 October), WorldACD data show, even as tonnage fell 1% for a third straight week. Our view: this rate floor is held up by costs, not demand. Jet fuel is up 111% year on year, and Gulf capacity is still 20% below late February, per WorldACD. Spot rates are 34% higher than a year ago. For forwarders, the fuel surcharge will move Q4 quotes more than the base rate. Our call: global spot ends October at or above $3.55/kg, with no post-holiday dip.
Air Oct 16, 2026 · 7 min read
DHL bets on a strong air peak, and it is putting its own money behind that bet. DHL Group now expects 2026 EBIT (operating profit) above €7.0bn, up from above €6.5bn. Third-quarter EBIT rose about 16% to roughly €1,710m. Express EBIT was about €1,035m, against €692m a year ago. DHL cites “indications of a robust seasonal peak in Q4.” In our view this is the clearest signal yet that air space will stay tight and pricey into December. DHL also lifted capex to about €3.6bn. Our call: global air rates on the TAC index stay at least 15% above last year until mid-December. Book peak space now.
Air Oct 15, 2026 · 7 min read
Riyadh’s air cargo capacity fell 99%. Europe-bound rates are falling anyway. Riyadh’s King Khalid airport is shut until at least 17 October after strikes blamed on the Houthis. Cargo capacity there fell 99%, from 3,925 tonnes to 26 tonnes, The Loadstar reported. Our view: this is a Saudi problem, not a global one. Freightos says China–North Europe air rates fell 7% last week, while China–North America rose 3%. WorldACD puts China–US spot at $6.05/kg, up 30% on last year. Forwarders should route Saudi freight via Jeddah, Dammam or by road, and quote each lane on its own. Our call: even if the airport reopens after 17 October, at least some foreign airlines stay away through end of October.
Air Oct 14, 2026 · 8 min read
Air rates dipped 2.1% over Golden Week. The peak is still on, but not to Europe. The Baltic Air Freight Index, by TAC Index, fell 2.1% last week over Golden Week. It is still 24.3% above a year ago. Our view: this is a holiday pause, not a turn. TAC called the dip “not unusual” for the holiday and said the market remains “pretty firm”. WorldACD puts September rates 25% higher year on year. But China–Europe is weak at $3.58/kg (Freightos), hit by the end of EU de minimis. Our call: through November, transpacific stays tight and China–Europe stays below $4/kg.
Air Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Air spot rates are 32% up on last year, and winter cuts will push them higher. Global air spot rates were 32% higher than a year ago in the first week of October, according to WorldACD data reported by Air Cargo Week. China–US spot averaged US$6.05/kg in September, up 30%. We think the price relief many expected after the summer is not coming. Capacity to and from the Gulf is still about 17% below late February. Now airlines such as Lufthansa are reported to be trimming winter passenger schedules, which removes belly space. Our call: global spot rates stay at least 20% above last year through the end of November.
Air Oct 13, 2026 · 7 min read
Samsung SDS buys the air space 1,200 forwarders rely on. Samsung SDS has agreed to buy 100% of Woojung Air, an Incheon air consolidator that handles more than 60,000 tonnes a year for over 1,200 forwarders, The Loadstar reports. No price was given. Our view: the buyers of Woojung’s space now buy from a rival. Woojung made ₩3bn operating profit on ₩213.9bn revenue last year, about 1.4%. In January, Samsung SDS said it planned to strengthen air freight, citing “more stable profitability compared to ocean logistics”. Forwarders should line up a second source of Incheon space now. We expect at least one rival Korean consolidator to change hands or sign a platform tie-up by mid-2027.
Air Oct 12, 2026 · 8 min read
Air rates are up 25% on last year. The fuel bill comes next. Global air cargo rates in September were 25% higher than a year earlier, WorldACD says, on tonnage up 9%. Our view: that is the cheap part. Jet fuel was up 108% year on year by 2 October, TAC Index reports, citing IATA and Platts data. TAC says rates “had not risen yet anything like so much as jet fuel prices”. Fuel is typically 25% to a third of airline costs. Forwarders should build surcharge changes into every peak quote. Our call: at least two big cargo airlines raise fuel surcharges on Asia long-haul before mid-November.
Air Oct 11, 2026 · 7 min read
Riyadh is shut and Dammam is hit. Saudi air cargo now has one working gateway. Riyadh’s King Khalid airport stayed closed on Sunday after its second strike in two days. Saturday’s missile killed 12 people and wounded more than 300, Fox News reported. Reuters put the toll at 13. Dammam was also targeted. Our view: for now, Saudi air freight runs through Jeddah or it waits. At Jeddah, Flightradar24 counted 156 cancellations and 374 delays on Sunday. Forwarders should rebook Riyadh and Dammam freight via Jeddah and truck it on, and warn customers about delays. We expect Riyadh to stay restricted until the FAA’s warning expires on 10 December.
Air Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Air cargo enters Q4 25% dearer than last year, while China–US dips over Golden Week. Global air cargo spot rates were 25.5% higher than a year earlier in the week to 5 October, according to TAC Index. The one soft lane was China–North America, which fell 18% in a week to about $5.60/kg as China shut for Golden Week, according to Freightos. Our view: the China dip is a holiday lull, not a turn. Jet fuel costs have doubled, and Xeneta says fixed one-year air deals are becoming the exception. Forwarders should quote short validities. Our call: China–North America rates are back above $6/kg by the end of October.
Air Oct 10, 2026 · 8 min read
Amazon launches two China–US air services, one with no FBA placement fee. Amazon Global Logistics has added two China–US air options for its sellers, according to Supply Chain Dive. Air SMP flies daily from Shanghai and Hong Kong to fulfilment centres in five US regions in 7–10 days, with no FBA inbound placement fee. Economy Air takes 11–15 days to Los Angeles, at a price below Amazon’s standard air. No rates were published. Our view: the fee waiver matters more than the flights. A forwarder can’t waive a fee Amazon charges. We expect FBA-focused forwarders on China–US air to cut rates to hold sellers by the end of Q1 2027.